A nuclear Iran within the decade is possible

Recently, Iran's nuclear negotiator Larenjani announced that Iran would be expanding its enrichment capability.

Iran said it plans to install 3,000 centrifuges at its enrichment plant in Natanz, central Iran, by the last quarter of 2006. Industrial production of enriched uranium in Natanz would require 54,000 centrifuges.

Even if one uses a lower-end estimate of 2-3 work units per centrifuge, that still means 6,000-9,000 work units annually, sufficient to fuel 1-1.5 nuclear weapons. It would do Iran less good to test a nuclear weapon without having another one in reserve; thus having enough fuel for 2-3 weapons would be prudent on their part. This leads to a possible timeline of 2009 for an Iran capable of nuclear attacks.

It is also worth noting that Iran is capable of launching dirty bomb attacks if it is willing to employ reactor-grade uranium.