Sunday, May 11, 2014

Economic growth in Somalia dependent upon piracy

According to a recent World Bank report, "Pirate Trails", between U$339-314M was paid out to pirates from 2005-2012. Given the low end estimate over an 8 year span, that's over U$42M/year.

According to UN statistics, the GDP of Somalia from 2010-2011 ranged from U$1067-1071M, with a GDP growth estimate of 2.6%. That works out to under U$28M/year. An obvious implication is that without piracy, the Somali economy would shrink.

Europe more dependent on Nigerian oil than the USA

According to recent EIA statistics, 44% of Nigerian oil exports go to Europe. Meanwhile, the fracking boom has reduced US dependence on imported oil.
Consequently, don't be surprised at European efforts to stabilize Nigeria, as evidenced by a recent report that France is sending secret service agents to Nigeria. The infrastructure threat is not theoretical, as Boko Haram has threatened oil refineries.