Tuesday, August 29, 2006

Hezbollah credibility undermined by Iranian forgers?

It's been alleged that Hezbollah is distributing counterfeit US $100 bills to Lebanese families, based on casual analysis of photos of the bills that have been published in the press.

Blaming Hezbollah for the alleged forgery may be premature. Earlier I commented on Iran's financial backing of Hezbollah, funnelling "unlimited" reconstruction money through them instead of the Lebanese government. The money is coming from Iran, which is known to have the equipment to counterfeit supernotes.

At first, investigators thought they originated in Lebanon. Another theory from the 1990s held that Iran produced them on equipment purchased by the Shah two decades earlier and then shipped the bills to Lebanon via Syria.

At this point, I think it's safe to conclude that Iran appears to be the source of supernotes in the Middle East.

Addendum: Even if the money were legitimate, Iran can use aid money to launder arms transfers. Consider the amount of money Hezbollah has claimed that will be required. The amount is in the ballpark of U$180M.

Hizbullah has been handing out $12,000 in cash to families who lost their homes in the Israeli bombing campaign. According to Hizbullah calculations, more than 15,000 housing units were destroyed.

There's nothing to keep money from being fraudulently claimed and funneled to rearm Hezbollah. It's also possible additional money could also be sent under the table to be skimmed and used for arms purchases. There's no chance the parties involved would open up their aid operation to an outside auditor.