Wednesday, August 23, 2006

Dollar hegemony safe for now

This August 17 piece in The Australian indicates that Gulf countries are recycling petrodollars back into US assets.

The IIF warns that poor capital account data makes it impossible to track capital flows from the region with any precision. But it says "the bulk of the region's surplus is used to finance portfolio investment. We suspect that the bulk of the surpluses are finding their way - one way or another - into the major capital markets, predominantly in the US"...
While some GCC countries have pledged to increase the proportion of their central bank reserves held in euros, these reserves account for only a small proportion of their total foreign assets, most of which are held in investment companies.
"With their fixed currency pegs, there is little incentive for GCC countries to undermine the (US) dollar," the report notes.

Needless to say, this would imply that the petroeuro is not about to take off and demolish US dollar hegemony any time soon. If petrodollars are being invested mostly in US capital markets, then US dollars are precisely the currency they need in order to minimize frictional loss due to currency exchange, while the currency pegs reduce risk due to currency fluctuation. A petroeuro, a petroyuan, or even a petrorupee would only be viable if portfolio investments were to shift significantly to the respective regions. Combined with Asian countries buying US Treasuries, it's a collective global vote of confidence in the dollar, at least for now

This could also be framed as global funding of the US-led War on Terror by both China and US-friendly GCC countries.

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