Girls academically faster than boys

When it comes to completing work of moderate difficulty, women are more efficient than men.

In a study involving over 8,000 males and females ranging in age from 2 to 90 from the across the United States, Vanderbilt University researchers Stephen Camarata and Richard Woodcock discovered that females have a significant advantage over males on timed tests and tasks. Camarata and Woodcock found the differences were particularly significant among pre-teens and teens.
"We found very minor differences in overall intelligence. But if you look at the ability of someone to perform well in a timed situation, females have a big advantage," Camarata said.

Perhaps it is not surprising that there is currently a gender performance gap in schools, given that homework loads have been increasing over time.

When researchers from the University of Michigan compared the amount of homework assigned in 1981 to the amount assigned in 1997, they were astonished. Although minimal changes occurred on the high school level, the amount of homework assigned to kids from six to nine almost tripled during that time! Assigned homework increased from about 44 minutes a week to more than two hours a week. Homework for kids aged nine to 11 increased from about two hours and 50 minutes to more than three and a half hours per week.

It would seem that boys can't keep up.

As women march forward, more boys seem to be falling by the wayside, McCorkell says. Not only do national statistics forecast a continued decline in the percentage of males on college campuses, but the drops are seen in all races, income groups and fields of study, says policy analyst Thomas Mortenson, publisher of the influential Postsecondary Education Opportunity newsletter in Oskaloosa, Iowa. Since 1995, he has been tracking — and sounding the alarm about — the dwindling presence of men in colleges.

It would appear that this trend may reflect underlying gender superiority in completing academic tasks in a timely manner.

Osama Bin Laden wants war in Sudan

In a recent audio tape, Osama bin Laden exhorted his followers to wage war upon the West in Sudan.

Not satisfied with all these intrigues and crimes, America moved on to stir up more strife. One of the areas of gravest strife was western Sudan, where some differences among the tribesmen were used to trigger a ferocious war among them that consumes everything in its way, in preparation for sending Crusader forces to occupy the region and steal its oil under the cover of maintaining security there. It is a continuous Zionist-Crusader war against the Muslims.
In this respect, I urge the mujahidin and their supporters in general, and in Sudan and the surrounding areas, including the Arabian Peninsula, in particular, to prepare all that which is necessary to fight a long-term war against the Crusader thieves in western Sudan. Our aim is clear: that is, defending Islam, its people, and land, and not defending the Khartoum government, although there could be common interests between us. Our differences with it are great...
I urge the mujahidin to acquaint themselves with the territory and tribes of the province of Darfur and the areas surrounding it. It has been said that the people who know a certain territory can conquer it, and that those who do not know a certain territory are conquered by it.

This flies in the face of the fact that the U.S. forced Western oil companies out of Sudan, an action inconsistent with the purported goal of stealing Sudan's oil wealth.

Once the United States could threaten rogue states with barring American, and with pressure, other western countries’ oil companies from exploration and production in those countries. This is precisely what happened in Sudan in the 1980s and 1990s, with Canada the last western country shamed out of the sector. Yet China and Malaysia quickly filled the vacuum.

Currently, the biggest importer of Sudanese oil is China.

Over recent years, China's state-owned firms have become active participants in Sudan's oil development. In 2000, the Khartoum government awarded a consortium led by the China National Petroleum Corporation (CNPC) a concession in the Melut basin east of the River Nile... The Chinese firm is the largest shareholder in the Greater Nile Petroleum Operating Company which dominates the country's production...
Already, China is the largest importer of Sudanese oil and Beijing hopes to keep it this way.

It's clear that Bin Laden wants to bait Western leaders into sending United Nations forces into Sudan, and open up another battle front against the West. However, it's also clear that China has no interest in allowing such to happen, as that would endanger their oil supply. It seems that Bin Laden has not factored the Chinese response, whatever that might eventually be, into his plans.

It seems that the U.S. apparently has been aware of the risks of sending U.N. troops with regard to providing fuel for anti-Western propaganda, and thus has instead been backing peacekeeping efforts by the African Union as a proxy.

The United States welcomes the African Union’s April 28 [2005] decision to increase the size of its Darfur peacekeeping force. The current 3,320 African Union troops will expand to more than 7,700. The United States supports the African Union’s consultations with NATO on potential logistical assistance, and calls on all African Union member states to provide additional forces to Darfur quickly.
We view the African Union as playing a central role in resolving the crisis in Darfur ... The United States has already contributed more that $95 million to support the African Union mission so far, and looks forward to supporting the expanded mission. The United States will continue to work with the African Union and the rest of the international community to support efforts to resolve the crisis in Darfur.

Accordingly, I don't expect Western military forces in the form of U.N. peacekeepers to enter Sudan any time soon.

A perfect storm for U.S. gasoline prices?

According to the U.S. Census Bureau, exurb growth continues, with the middle class fleeing in search of more affordable housing. Along with this trend is an increase in commuting distance, and thus gasoline expenses. As I noted earlier, exurbs have been a growing base for the Republican Party.

Meanwhile, the rapidity of MTBE being banned and the apparent switchover to ethanol as a substitute is leading to potential temporary ethanol shortages as infrastructure and supply strains to meet the sudden rise in demand, a trend which can only increase gasoline prices.

The coming hurricane season is expected to be active, though not to the same degree as 2005. It is reasonable to posit some risk to oil extraction and refining due to hurricanes this season.

According to a recent FOX poll, "the top reason for those saying it feels like the economy is getting worse is gas prices". Given the ongoing geopolitical uncertainty over oil supply from Iran and Nigeria, this 2006 election issue is not likely to go away any time soon.

On the rise of the metrosexual

A recent study found that wealthier women want more attractive men.

Fhionna Moore and colleagues at the University of St Andrews, UK, analysed questionnaires from 1851 heterosexual women between the ages of 18 and 35. They found that as a woman's level of "resource control" increases - in other words as they become more financially independent - so does their preference for physical attractiveness in potential partners.

It seems plausible to posit that the increasing financial independence of women in the West is a driver behind the trend of the metrosexual.

In his seminal essay [published in 1994], Simpson described the effect of consumerism and media proliferation, particularly the men’s style press, on traditional masculinity. The metrosexual, he says, is an urban male of any sexual orientation who has a strong aesthetic sense and spends a great deal of time and money on his appearance and lifestyle.

This is consistent with a more informal 2004 report in the Daily Telegraph.

Today, with more financial independence, women are less concerned about the financial prospects of their potential mate, and, indeed, are becoming more masculine in the way they think about partners – they focus more on their appearance and how sexually compatible and pleasing to be with a potential mate will be.
Women reach their sexual peak a decade or two after men do, so it makes sense for a woman to date a man who is substantially younger. In addition, women generally look after themselves better than men do, so, increasingly, they are in better shape than men of a similar age. Some women will tend to view men as trophies or accessories who can make them look better in the eyes of other women.

The metrosexual is therefore a prime candidate for trophy husband.

Iran and global energy insecurity

Some in Congress were uneasy about the nuclear deal with India. Rice had to spell it out for them:

"Diversifying India's energy sector will help it to meet its ever increasing needs and more importantly, ease its reliance on hydrocarbons and unstable sources like Iran. This is good for the United States," she said in testimony to the House committee.

Translation: allowing India to go nuclear helps the U.S. isolate Iran. Like it or not, India's energy security needs are constraining U.S. foreign policy.

India's Oil Minister Mani Shankar Aiyar said on March 10 the U.S. Ambassador, David Mulford, met him to express concern about India's plan to import gas from Iran through a pipeline.
``We have noted what U.S. concerns are,'' Aiyar said. ``I think the U.S. is well aware of our energy requirements. So far we are sensitive to each other's requirements.''

There's also, China's reliance upon Iranian oil.

... the success of any UN action against Iran hinges on Beijing's support, as it is one of five permanent members of the UN Security Council with veto-yielding power. And China ... just happens to be searching for new energy reserves to drive its booming economy.
Iranian Petroleum Minister Bijan Zandaneh told China Business Weekly recently that Tehran wants China to replace Japan as the biggest importer of its oil and gas. "Japan is our No 1 energy importer due to historical reasons, but we would like to give preference to exports to China,"

The current multipolarity of the current geopolitical tango over Iran demonstrates a limit of influence afforded by U.S. military dominance. Globalization has meant that economic dominance does not provide unilateral power, as mutual economic interdependency means that it is at best difficult to prevent shocks in one economy from spilling over into other economies. This is not all negative. This interdependency has also meant that it was in the interest many countries to supply the U.S. with refined oil products after Hurricane Katrina hit in 2005.

A group of 26 countries, including the United States, yesterday agreed to release oil, gasoline or other petroleum products from their emergency reserves in an attempt to bring down soaring prices and avert domestic shortages.

Still, this complicates dealings with Iran. A cutoff of Iranian oil supply or an Iranian blockade of the Persian Gulf (denying passage to other countries' oil transport vessels) would impact Europe, India, and China, forcing them to go elsewhere on the global energy market to meet domestic demand. The resulting economic impact upon the U.S. would be quickly felt. The recent Oil Shockwave simulation, though targeting different scenarios (publicly, at least), has negative implications for the situation with Iran.

The underlying situation dramatized in the exercise -- and accepted by most energy analysts -- is that tolerances are so tight between supply and demand, that even small disruptions in the delivery of oil and natural gas can cause cascades of unpleasant developments.
The war game contemplated that when oil prices spiked and the Cabinet met to consider its options, it realized it had almost no clout to influence events.

Newspeak on Newspeak?

The first paragraph on this anti-cloning site has an unfortunate error.

The term "therapeutic cloning" is an example of "newspeak," the art defined in H.G. Wells's 1984 as obscuring or reversing the truth through the manipulation of words. The term "therapeutic cloning" was first popularized by the British government as a means of reassuring the public that they would be protected from clones walking the streets by a ban on "reproductive cloning," while experimental "therapeutic" cloning could proceed.

1984 was written by George Orwell; given the site's hostility to human-animal chimeras, they probably got their reference confused and/or conflated with H.G. Wells' The Isle of Dr. Moreau. Regardless, this error obscures the truth of authorship.

Shifting consumption and Canadian reserves

I've commented in the past about India and China with regard to global oil supply. Today, I ran across an interesting statistic with regard to global consumption of oil:

"The center of gravity in world oil is shifting," said Daniel Yergin, the chairman of Cambridge Energy Research Associates and an author of "The Prize: The Epic Quest for Oil, Money & Power," a Pulitzer Prize-winning history of oil.
"Last year, Asia consumed more oil than North America," Yergin said. He predicts an oil-supply shift, too, as Africa, Russia and former Soviet republics compete with the Middle East to fill the growing demand for oil.

Given the rising economies and consumptions of India and China, it is likely that in a few decades the USA will have less control over the price of oil, as it is outbid on the market. Furthermore, ongoing modernization of their militaries will provide the capacity to challenge the USA for access to oil and natural resources, should push come to shove in a few decades time.

I have to take issue with a detail glossed over in a later passage in the cited article:

For now, the United States remains well-positioned, at least when it comes to energy supplies. The proven reserves in the Middle East make it the expected primary global supplier of crude oil. Iraq, where the United States has forcefully established a beachhead, has proven oil reserves of between 78 billion and 112 billion barrels.

This neglects the status of Canada's oil reserves, dominated by oil sands; Canada's estimated reserves are larger than Iraq's estimated reserves by a factor of 22.

The worlds largest oil reserve is not lying under Saudi Arabian deserts or under the sea, it is clinging to grains of sand in the Canadian boreal forest of Northern Alberta. Between 1.7 [trillion] and 2.5 [trillion] barrels of crude oil, 300 [billion] of which are expected to be recoverable, are spread like topsoil across thousands of sq. km of Alberta forest and tundra.

The blogosphere and fundamental attribution error

Recently released reporter Carroll renounced her coerced video statements.

''During my last night of captivity, my captors forced me to participate in a propaganda video..."
''They told me they would let me go if I cooperated. I was living in a threatening environment, under their control, and wanted to go home alive. I agreed."
[Carroll's] statements in a recent video -- in which she praised her captors and spoke out against the American military presence in Iraq -- do not reflect her personal views, she said...
Those statements had set off a torrent of criticism on talk radio and among bloggers on the Internet. Some suggested Carroll was suffering from Stockholm syndrome, where captives begin to identify with their kidnappers. Some contributors to blogs suggested her kidnapping was staged to provide propaganda for the insurgents, and called her no better than her captors. One blogger said Carroll should be charged with treason upon her return, and some alleged she was indicative of a media biased against the war.

These critics in particular are judging Carroll's statements from a dispositional standpoint, preferring to conclude that she was acting upon her own volition, rather than acting under duress. It appears that these particularly critical bloggers were evincing fundamental attribution error.

In attribution theory, the fundamental attribution error (sometimes referred to as the actor-observer bias, correspondence bias or overattribution effect) is the tendency for people to over-emphasize dispositional, or personality-based, explanations for behaviors observed in others while under-emphasizing the role and power of situational influences on the same behavior. In other words, people tend to have a default assumption that what a person does is based more on what "kind" of person he is, rather than the social and environmental forces at work on that person. This default assumption leads to people sometimes making erroneous explanations for behavior. This general bias to over-emphasizing dispositional explanations for behavior at the expense of situational explanations is much less likely to occur when people evaluate their own behavior.

This behavior on the part of some bloggers was not surprising. In fact, we should expect conservative bloggers to evince fundamental attribution bias more often, as people who are prone to fundamental attribution bias would tend to come to conclusions which fall in line with conservative stances on social issues. This phenomenon is well-known to psychologists. In fact, an explanation of why psychologists seem more liberal can be found in this passage in a column titled A Line on Life: Errors in Explaining Behavior – Why Psychologists Are So "Liberal" by David A. Gershaw, Ph.D.

... psychologists are more aware of the biases of attribution, so they are more likely to be aware of situational factors. This view makes us seem more liberal. As a nation, we are greatly concerned with reducing crime. If we see criminal acts as dispositional – as do most conservatives – we will emphasize stiffer penalties and more prisons. If we emphasize situational factors – as more liberals do – we will promote improving conditions for disadvantaged children to prevent them from becoming criminals.

In line with expectations from psychology, the most critical bloggers advocated stiff penalties in the form of charges of treason.