Monday, April 03, 2006

Shifting consumption and Canadian reserves

I've commented in the past about India and China with regard to global oil supply. Today, I ran across an interesting statistic with regard to global consumption of oil:

"The center of gravity in world oil is shifting," said Daniel Yergin, the chairman of Cambridge Energy Research Associates and an author of "The Prize: The Epic Quest for Oil, Money & Power," a Pulitzer Prize-winning history of oil.
"Last year, Asia consumed more oil than North America," Yergin said. He predicts an oil-supply shift, too, as Africa, Russia and former Soviet republics compete with the Middle East to fill the growing demand for oil.

Given the rising economies and consumptions of India and China, it is likely that in a few decades the USA will have less control over the price of oil, as it is outbid on the market. Furthermore, ongoing modernization of their militaries will provide the capacity to challenge the USA for access to oil and natural resources, should push come to shove in a few decades time.

I have to take issue with a detail glossed over in a later passage in the cited article:

For now, the United States remains well-positioned, at least when it comes to energy supplies. The proven reserves in the Middle East make it the expected primary global supplier of crude oil. Iraq, where the United States has forcefully established a beachhead, has proven oil reserves of between 78 billion and 112 billion barrels.

This neglects the status of Canada's oil reserves, dominated by oil sands; Canada's estimated reserves are larger than Iraq's estimated reserves by a factor of 22.

The worlds largest oil reserve is not lying under Saudi Arabian deserts or under the sea, it is clinging to grains of sand in the Canadian boreal forest of Northern Alberta. Between 1.7 [trillion] and 2.5 [trillion] barrels of crude oil, 300 [billion] of which are expected to be recoverable, are spread like topsoil across thousands of sq. km of Alberta forest and tundra.

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