According to the U.S. Census Bureau, exurb growth continues, with the middle class fleeing in search of more affordable housing. Along with this trend is an increase in commuting distance, and thus gasoline expenses. As I noted earlier, exurbs have been a growing base for the Republican Party.
Meanwhile, the rapidity of MTBE being banned and the apparent switchover to ethanol as a substitute is leading to potential temporary ethanol shortages as infrastructure and supply strains to meet the sudden rise in demand, a trend which can only increase gasoline prices.
The coming hurricane season is expected to be active, though not to the same degree as 2005. It is reasonable to posit some risk to oil extraction and refining due to hurricanes this season.
According to a recent FOX poll, "the top reason for those saying it feels like the economy is getting worse is gas prices". Given the ongoing geopolitical uncertainty over oil supply from Iran and Nigeria, this 2006 election issue is not likely to go away any time soon.
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