Thursday, August 05, 2004

Trends in Sudan

I expect we will see the emerging genocide continue essentially unchallenged in Sudan. The flypaper strategy in Iraq has given a lesson to everyone in the world on how to resist the West. The Sudanese army combined with the Janjawid could go plainclothes, fade into the population, and proceed to wage a classic insurgency against Western troops and aid personnel. This likely makes the West wary of sending troops in. Furthermore, Europe has an additional disincentive, as they are involved with Sudanese oil. Finally, environmental degradation is exacerbating resource competition. This bodes ill for the next few decades, as Sudan's population is expected to grow further; cf. the population pyramid charts for Sudan over 2000, 2025, and 2050.

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