Thursday, August 19, 2004

The shape of the pullout to come

The recently announced worldwide troop pullouts by the USA serves multiple purposes.

  1. Improved domestic trickle-down effect from military spending. Basing more troops on US soil will increase domestic spending, which should have a net effect of boosting the American economy in the long term.
  2. Reduction of support for competing economies. In particular, Germany will be the subject of the most reductions. If there was any intent to punish Germany for its lack of support leading up to the recent US coalition-Iraq war, it'll come to pass in the form of the loss of over a billion dollars in spending.
  3. Minor budget reduction. According to the Congressional Budget Office, the estimated cost savings of one billion per year, the troop shift would pay for itself in seven years.

As well, it sets the stage for a more lightweight footprint for American forces overseas. Key phrases to look for: lily pads, Striker Brigade, and Global Strike bomber. Expect fewer and smaller permanent bases overseas, but with capacity to handle temporary swells in troops, increased emphasis on rapid reaction forces able to deploy globally on short notice, and bombers based on US-soil which will be capable of delivering smart weapons anywhere in the world.

Once likely consequence is additional incentive for the EU to boost its own rapid reaction force if it is to maintain a political policy course distinct from the USA and NATO.

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