Russia continues to sell fighters to China which outperform the F-15. Chen Shui-Bian and Jiang Zemin have a bad dynamic happening, with the former's independence drive clashing with the latter's hard-nosed nationalism. Given this uncertainty, there's a slim but nonzero chance that the annual military (invasion) exercises China has scheduled for the end of the month may mask a genuine attempt. Having their forces deployed forward would minimize the reaction time of any Taiwanese and US defense forces. US air superiority being overwhelming against China may not be a sure thing, potentially limiting the effectiveness of US defenders. As well, China has an unusual window of opportunity in that US land forces are extended elsewhere globally. We'll see if they bite or not.
The USA has run simulated wargames in conjunction with Taiwan, but is keeping quiet about the results. I'm wagering the USA is keeping a close eye on the situation.
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