Sunday, January 22, 2017

Interpreting China's cancellation of coal plants

The superficial spin is that China is taking the lead on climate change, which is all well and fine. The reality is that coal generation capacity is veering into excess, so building idle plants would only benefit the construction industry. On top of that, the long-term goal is to reduce reliance upon coal due to excess air pollution, which is an additional disincentive for building coal plants that may never be used.

The clampdown on approvals for coal plant construction until 2018 is interesting, given the prospect of a 2020 reelection run. If China has stepped up its efforts to get away from coal, that indirectly is an attack on Trump's coal job ambitions, which would be an attack upon his voter base. Trump is therefore additional incentive for China to curb reliance upon coal, and keep coal prices down globally.

https://www.scientificamerican.com/article/china-to-halt-construction-on-coal-fired-power-plants-in-15-regions/
"China is finally beginning to clamp down on its out of control coal power bubble," said Lauri Myllyvirta, Greenpeace's senior campaigner on coal, in an emailed statement.
http://www.cnbc.com/2016/12/12/global-coal-demand-will-barely-grow-through-2021-says-iea-report.html
IEA expects worldwide growth in coal consumption to average just 0.6 percent between 2015 and 2021 as developed countries continue to abandon the energy source and China's consumption plateaus. That will offset growing demand among emerging nations, particularly in India and Southeast Asia.

1 comment:

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