Sunday, April 01, 2007

Iranian nationalism as a defensive tactic

It's been claimed that nationalism drives national policies in Northeast Asia.

One common characteristic of nationalism in Northeast Asian countries is that it serves to soothe the inferiority complex of people in the region, a South Korean scholar at a Chinese university claimed on Tuesday...
Korean nationalism is a unique combination of an inferiority complex and national chauvinism, according to Park.
``Korean nationalism is conservative and self-defensive due to its past experience of being invaded and suppressed by other nations,'' he said.
``But on the other side, Korean people are also proud of their long history including its heritage from the three kingdoms period, and the fact that it was the only ancient tribe of Northeast Asia not to be integrated by the Chinese,'' Park said. He added its economic success since the 1960s has intensified that pride.

By extension, it's worth observing how much Iran's apparent inferiority complex is driving their current foreign policy.

The Foreign Office is said to be considering offering Iran a way out without losing face over the crisis...
Attempts have backfired in recent days to "shame" Mahmoud Ahmadinejad's regime into admitting it was in the wrong after the Ministry of Defence released co-ordinates of where the UK team were picked up...
Mr Ahmadinejad, the Iran president, said on Saturday that Britain had not reacted in a "logical or legal" way. "The British government, instead of apologising and expressing regret over the action taken, started to claim that we are in their debt," he said...
Sir Malcolm Rifkind, MP, the former foreign secretary, called for pressure on the Iranians, but said the threat of sanctions should have been put "privately" first, "because otherwise the Iranians are pushed into a humiliating climbdown".

Nationalism seems to be key to maintaining support for the current Iranian presidency despite the weak employment conditions and the burgeoning economic growth demands of a population boom entering early adulthood.

A report commissioned by the Management and Planing Organization (MPO) and Iran Youth Organization (IYO) released on Sunday predicted that if the annual unemployment rate of 13.2 percent holds up then the jobless rate among 15-29 age group will reach 52 percent within two years [i.e., by 2006].

The US administration should not have been surprised by the effectiveness of their economic offensive.

More than 40 major international banks and financial institutions have either cut off or cut back business with the Iranian government or private sector as a result of a quiet campaign launched by the Treasury and State departments last September...
The financial squeeze has seriously crimped Tehran's ability to finance petroleum industry projects and to pay for imports...
Iranian importers are particularly feeling the pinch, with many having to pay for commodities in advance when a year ago they could rely on a revolving line of credit, said Patrick Clawson, a former World Bank official now at the Washington Institute for Near East Policy. The scope of Iran's vulnerability has been a surprise to U.S. officials, he added.

My current prediction is that the U.S. administration will take advantage of the current crisis to intensify the economic offensive against Iran in the hope that disaffected Iranian youth will set effect regime change. It's less clear how nationalism will complicate that, aside from the usual risk of any opposition being identified with the U.S.

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