Fourth-generation warfare and the oil weapon

Last week, three events combined to drive up the price of crude oil. First, in the background, was the escalating tension over Iran's nuclear ambitions. Iran signalled that it may be willing to cut off oil in retaliation against any economic sanctions.

Emboldened by strong prices and stretched global supplies, Tehran could retaliate by removing all or part of its daily crude sales of 2.4 million barrels from thirsty world markets...
Further actual disruptions would be hard, if not impossible, for the world to cover with the Organisation of the Petroleum Exporting Countries holding only 1.5 million barrels per day in reserve.

Iranian President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad is maximizing uncertainty as to what Iran will do, thus maximizing his options. Even the threat is sufficient to have the desired impact.

Attacks by militants in Nigeria have disrupted 10% of the country's oil production, an amount over 200,000 barrels/day. The militants promise more attacks. Their attacks have greater impact when oil supplies are tight. Perhaps coincidentally, one known militant leader is an American-educated convert to Islam.

Finally, a message apparently from Osama bin Laden was broadcast that threatened further attacks, allegedly in the planning stages. This resulted in further escalation of the price of oil.

It's worth remembering that maintaining a high oil price is effectively an attack on the U.S. economy, an aim in line with the goals of Iran and al Qaida. As well, selling oil at high prices further boosts Iraq's war chest of foreign capital.

Finally, sabotage has been blamed for explosions which hit a natural gas pipeline running from Russia to Georgia, though Interfax has blamed it on "malfunctions". It's quite possible that militants have been emboldened by Russia's recent use of the oil weapon against Ukraine. The blasts was in North Ossetia, a region known for violent Chechen separatism, e.g., the deadly siege at Beslan. It's also possible that radical Islam may be on the increase in the region.

The events possibly comprise a loosely-coordinated swarm attack with opportunistic timing.

It should also be noted that an alleged al Qaida web site recently called for attacks on the trans-Alaska oil pipeline and the Valdez tanker dock.

Attacking oil and gas targets in the United States and other countries is key to bringing down the economy of the "American devils," the author wrote, saying the message was posted in response to calls from Usama bin Laden and his top Al Qaeda deputy, Ayman Al-Zawahiri.
The Arabic posting was discovered and translated in late December by the SITE Institute, a Washington, D.C., nonprofit organization that tracks international terrorists.