Evaluating credibility

First, a summary of the al Qaida plans allegedly recently intercepted.

The letter of instructions and requests outlines a four-stage plan, according to officials: First, expel American forces from Iraq. Second, establish a caliphate over as much of Iraq as possible. Third, extend the jihad to neighboring countries, with specific reference to Egypt and the Levant — a term that describes Syria and Lebanon. And finally, war against Israel.

The strategic goals are consistent with an extant 1998 fatwa issued by Osama bin Laden, which itself lends credibility to the document. The strategy appears to be viable, though I can't estimate the likelihood of success or failure. Point two would require civil war in Iraq.

"The situation is so tense... a civil war could erupt at any moment although some people would say it is already there," Amr Moussa told BBC radio's Today programme.
"There are a lot of individuals... now playing games with the future of Iraq and there is no clear strategy, there is no clear leadership."
The Arab League, he said, would work to bring Iraq's different religious and ethnic groups together.