Friday, August 19, 2005

Shocks through the system

Kenya appears to have become a chokepoint for oil in East Africa. Due to delays and protests over new rules over duties, Uganda, Rwanda, Burundi, Congo and northern Tanzania may face fuel shortages, which consequent impacts upon their economies.

Perhaps it's little wonder that Tanzania has agreed to Angola's proposal for a modest hydroelectric power study to by completed by 2008, which could lead to a Chinese-built dam by 2017.

Zimbabewe appears to be undergoing an inflation spiral triggered by sharp price hikes, as the price of oil is state-regulated.

The International Energy Agency notes that Africa and Asia are highly vulnerable to a rise in the price of oil:

The economies of oil-importing developing countries in Asia and Africa would suffer most from higher oil prices because their economies are more dependent on imported oil. In addition, energy-intensive manufacturing generally accounts for a larger share of their GDP and energy is used less efficiently. On average, oil-importing developing countries use more than twice as much oil to produce one unit of economic output as do developed countries.

The rise in oil prices may negate the impact of G8 debt relief.

It is also little wonder that China and India are looking to Africa for oil:

China has more recently become a player in the energy field on the west coast of Africa, which is the largest producer of oil on the continent. West Africa provides the United States with 15 per cent of oil imports and this is projected to grow to as much as 20-25% over the coming decade. Nigeria and Angola are the main producers and China has become active in both countries. Angola represents how China puts its assets together to build its presence. In connection with its bid to win rights to exploration of a bloc, China offered Angola a $2 billion soft loan as part of a longer term aid package. China won the bid, and - as an indication that China is not the only new player on the continent - the closest competitor was India.

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