Sunday, October 17, 2004

Staying the course

Tawhid and Jihad has apparently declared its alliegience to al Qaida and Osama bin Laden; the alleged statement also affirmed the common goal of expelling "infidels" from the Arabian peninsula. One analyst was quoted as saying it was a media stunt to frustrate the USA, their common enemy, as well as leveraging the reputation of al Qaida to boost their own.

I'd say there's more to this psyop. Consider the recent tape from al Qaida's number two operative a mere two months ago:

"The defeat of America in Iraq and Afghanistan has become a matter of time, with God’s help," al-Zawahri said on the tape. "The Americans in both countries are between two fires, if they continue they bleed to death and if they withdraw they lose everything."

Given that stated "two fires" objective of al Qaida, it is reasonble to infer that the announcement from Tawhid and Jihad was also intended to force the USA to maintain its force levels in Iraq after the election regardless of who wins, and thus keep pressure off Afghanistan. The statement does not affect Bush's position, but it is a counter to Kerry's attempt to distinguish the conflict in Iraq from the larger War on Terror.

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