Up until now, it seemed that Syria was next up at bat, what with economic sanctions being applied by the USA in light of apparent support of Iraqi insurgents by some official elements within Syria. Recent comments by Bush about investigations into the possibility that Iran played any role in the September 11, 2001 terrorist attacks may signal a shift in focus.
Iran has been giving the IAEA grief, reluctantly giving up details of their nuclear program and possibly concealing a covert nuclear weapons program. The case for Iran is stronger than it was for Iraq. International officials have found traces of weapons-grade uranium, though it was explained away as contamination. Iran acquired centrifuge and other nuclear technology from Pakistan, and apparently recently sought out a number of specialized magnets in greater quantity than would be required for merely a research program. Al Jazeera reports that Iran sought out 4000 magnets, sufficient to equip 2000 centrifuges. Iran has uranium deposits on native soil and can produce yellow cake.
I'll wager hardliners in Iran saw the writing on the wall after Iraq fell to coalition forces and are scrambling to get nuclear offensive capability in order to deter the USA. Iran is within striking range for nuking Israel and possess proven missile technology, thanks in part to North Korea judging from the designs. Russia has not been helping any, as they've refused to stop assisting work on the Bushehr nuclear reactor in Iran. By Iran's official reckoning, 1500 specialists from Russia and other CIS countries are assisting.
Things could get tricky if Shia-dominated portions of southern Iraq opt to break away and join a nuclear Iran.
The logic of preemption implies that the prevention of WMD cannot stop at merely Iraq. Even if war is avoided, the impact upon a fledging Iraq could lead to break-up.
What next indeed?
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