Monday, April 26, 2004

Friend or foe? Yes and no...

This early article on fourth generation warfare had a then provocative statement:

In broad terms, fourth generation warfare seems likely to be widely dispersed and largely undefined; the distinction between war and peace will be blurred to the vanishing point. It will be nonlinear, possibly to the point of having no definable battlefields or fronts. The distinction between "civilian" and "military" may disappear.

It seems clear now that employment and integration into society is one of those battle fronts. Consider the two data points below.

In Afghanistan, Karzai is calling for the rank-and-file Taliban to return to the fold.

Afghan President Hamid Karzai returned Sunday to a Taliban stronghold where he was nearly assassinated 19 months ago, and said he would welcome rank-and-file members of the militia back into society...
"Our problem is mainly with the top Taliban -- who may number no more than 150 people -- who had links with Al Qaeda," Karzai said. "Those people are the enemies of Afghanistan, and we are against them.
"But those Taliban who are doing jobs and tilling the fields and working as shopkeepers, we want to welcome those Taliban."

That took guts. A bomb attack against Karzai was foiled just the day before.

A few days ago in Iraq, Bremer announced that former card-carrying Baathists could regain their jobs, provided they didn't act criminally.

The top U.S. administrator in Iraq announced Friday an easing of the ban on public sector jobs for members of Saddam Hussein's disbanded party. The move will allow thousands of former Baathists to return to positions in the military and Iraqi schools and universities...
The U.S. decision to disband Hussein's military and the Baath Party after Hussein's fall was at first popular. But it led to widespread unemployment, especially among the Sunni minority that formed the core of Hussein's regime. Some of the unemployed went on to join the ranks of the anti-U.S. insurgency, Iraqis and U.S. commanders say...

The West has a saying, that idle hands are the devil's tools. Those who are occupied at making a living have less time on their hands to make revolution. While it may be discouraging that 10 percent of the hired Iraqi security forces worked against US interests, the odds of an unemployed Baathist working against US interests was likely higher.

Clausewitz stated that the key to victory was defeating the enemy's will to fight. It must be remembered that this is a goal quite distinct from sheer destruction of the enemy. If insurgents and sympathizers can be convinced to buy into local democratic governments, then US interests are still being advanced.

While rhetoric stating that terrorists have no soul and lack a conscience might apparently be fine for a pep talk on the home front, the reality in the field is more complex.

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