Sunday, April 01, 2007

Iranian nationalism as a defensive tactic

It's been claimed that nationalism drives national policies in Northeast Asia.

One common characteristic of nationalism in Northeast Asian countries is that it serves to soothe the inferiority complex of people in the region, a South Korean scholar at a Chinese university claimed on Tuesday...
Korean nationalism is a unique combination of an inferiority complex and national chauvinism, according to Park.
``Korean nationalism is conservative and self-defensive due to its past experience of being invaded and suppressed by other nations,'' he said.
``But on the other side, Korean people are also proud of their long history including its heritage from the three kingdoms period, and the fact that it was the only ancient tribe of Northeast Asia not to be integrated by the Chinese,'' Park said. He added its economic success since the 1960s has intensified that pride.

By extension, it's worth observing how much Iran's apparent inferiority complex is driving their current foreign policy.

The Foreign Office is said to be considering offering Iran a way out without losing face over the crisis...
Attempts have backfired in recent days to "shame" Mahmoud Ahmadinejad's regime into admitting it was in the wrong after the Ministry of Defence released co-ordinates of where the UK team were picked up...
Mr Ahmadinejad, the Iran president, said on Saturday that Britain had not reacted in a "logical or legal" way. "The British government, instead of apologising and expressing regret over the action taken, started to claim that we are in their debt," he said...
Sir Malcolm Rifkind, MP, the former foreign secretary, called for pressure on the Iranians, but said the threat of sanctions should have been put "privately" first, "because otherwise the Iranians are pushed into a humiliating climbdown".

Nationalism seems to be key to maintaining support for the current Iranian presidency despite the weak employment conditions and the burgeoning economic growth demands of a population boom entering early adulthood.

A report commissioned by the Management and Planing Organization (MPO) and Iran Youth Organization (IYO) released on Sunday predicted that if the annual unemployment rate of 13.2 percent holds up then the jobless rate among 15-29 age group will reach 52 percent within two years [i.e., by 2006].

The US administration should not have been surprised by the effectiveness of their economic offensive.

More than 40 major international banks and financial institutions have either cut off or cut back business with the Iranian government or private sector as a result of a quiet campaign launched by the Treasury and State departments last September...
The financial squeeze has seriously crimped Tehran's ability to finance petroleum industry projects and to pay for imports...
Iranian importers are particularly feeling the pinch, with many having to pay for commodities in advance when a year ago they could rely on a revolving line of credit, said Patrick Clawson, a former World Bank official now at the Washington Institute for Near East Policy. The scope of Iran's vulnerability has been a surprise to U.S. officials, he added.

My current prediction is that the U.S. administration will take advantage of the current crisis to intensify the economic offensive against Iran in the hope that disaffected Iranian youth will set effect regime change. It's less clear how nationalism will complicate that, aside from the usual risk of any opposition being identified with the U.S.

Friday, March 23, 2007

Pet food as biosecurity early warning for China

A recent tainted pet food recall has pinned aminopterin as the contaminant.

Aminopterin is used as a rat poison in some countries, but is not registered for that purpose in Canada or the U.S...
The company and investigators at the U.S. Food and Drug Administration had been focusing on wheat gluten, a source of protein in the pet food...
ABC News reported the chemical was on wheat imported from China. Menu Foods has neither confirmed nor denied it uses wheat from China.

Aminopterin prevents the body from using folic acid. Deficiencies in folic acid can lead to neural-tube defects (NTDs) in children. Is China unintentionally poisoning its own? The NTD rate in Northern China is troubling.

Rates of anencephaly in Asia have been reported to be comparable to those of other regions outside the British Isles, while spina bifida prevalence was lower in Asia than elsewhere (Little and Elwood, 1991). However, NTD prevalence in northern China has been reported to be among the highest in the world (Moore et al., 1997).

That's geographically coincident with the major wheat production region in China.

Most of China’s wheat production is in the North China Plain in the central and eastern part of the nation, where three provinces — Henan, Shandong and Hebei — produce more than 50 percent of the national crop.

Wednesday, March 21, 2007

Sustaining surges

A few weeks ago, the Washington Post reported on recently approved troop increases.

The president agreed to send 4,700 troops to Iraq in addition to the 21,500 he ordered to go in January, mainly to provide support for those combat forces and to handle more anticipated Iraqi prisoners. He also decided to send a 3,500-member brigade to Afghanistan to accelerate training of local forces, doubling his previous troop increase to fight a resurgent Taliban.
... the latest troop increase in Afghanistan had not been known and will bring U.S. forces there to an all-time high.

A recent article in Wired parenthetically mentioned intended long-term troop increases.

The Bush administration wants to increase the overall size of combat forces by 92,000 people over the next five years.

Given that the projected increase (92,000) is significantly larger than the combined surges (26,200 net for Iraq; 7,000 net for Afghanistan), the intent is apparently to be able to better sustain counterinsurgency operations on a scale comparable to what is going on currently, since it will better enable timely rotation of troops.