Staying the course

Tawhid and Jihad has apparently declared its alliegience to al Qaida and Osama bin Laden; the alleged statement also affirmed the common goal of expelling "infidels" from the Arabian peninsula. One analyst was quoted as saying it was a media stunt to frustrate the USA, their common enemy, as well as leveraging the reputation of al Qaida to boost their own.

I'd say there's more to this psyop. Consider the recent tape from al Qaida's number two operative a mere two months ago:

"The defeat of America in Iraq and Afghanistan has become a matter of time, with God’s help," al-Zawahri said on the tape. "The Americans in both countries are between two fires, if they continue they bleed to death and if they withdraw they lose everything."

Given that stated "two fires" objective of al Qaida, it is reasonble to infer that the announcement from Tawhid and Jihad was also intended to force the USA to maintain its force levels in Iraq after the election regardless of who wins, and thus keep pressure off Afghanistan. The statement does not affect Bush's position, but it is a counter to Kerry's attempt to distinguish the conflict in Iraq from the larger War on Terror.

Trouble in paradise

In 2002, suicide bombers hit a hotel in Kenya. In 2003, terrorists hit a Marriott in Malaysia. Recently, rockets were fired at a Sheraton in Iraq. Now a Hilton was bombed in Egypt.

Hotels likely offer a high concentration of foreigners, and thus are attractive to insurgents in that they're less likely to kill locals. Soft targets it is.

Fear is the mind killer

Researchers have found in rats that anxiety takes cognition offline; the affected rats reverted to habit under stress. They contrasted cognitive learning with stimulus-response (habit) learning, and found the mechanisms competed.

There are two obvious ways to compensate for the impact of fear. One is to ingrain habits which would be adaptive responses when facing stressful situations. The other is stress management. The latter has the benefit of enabling cognition.