Saturday, July 10, 2004

Nationializing Yukos?

So the Russian government froze Yukos' assets. We'll see if they end up (re)nationalizing the oil company. This is not helping the price of oil any. It could also be serving double-duty as an indirect means to harm the US economy in hopes of making it harder for Bush to be reelected.

Wednesday, July 07, 2004

Why did Bush back condoms?

According to a piece originally in the New York Times, in a Philadelphia speech, Bush backed condoms in the fight against AIDS, citing the case of Uganda. This appears at first glance to be a reversal in the administration's abstinence-based stance regarding condoms and AIDS strategy, the truth is US foreign aid to Africa targeting AIDS did not rule out the use of condoms.

Though this may unsettle some conservative groups, there's a deeper reason for this shift in tack: terrorism. It appears consensus is building over AIDS as a driver for future failed states and therefore breeding grounds for terrorists. Al Qaida has a presence in several African countries already. Like it or not, condoms are part of the arsenal in the War on Terror.

Sunday, July 04, 2004

The proxy war is on in Iraq

Without mincing words, the USA is currently engaged in proxy warfare with Syria and Iran. Although the Iraqi Governing Council did not name names officially, unofficially they pointed the finger at the two countries as the worst offenders for supporting insurgents. There are indications that there are sympathizers within Syria's border guards and intelligence services. Given the stakes, both Iran and Syria are likely continuing clandestine efforts to develop and acquire nuclear weapons as insurance against US military intervention.

This is not a surprising outcome, though. What's interesting is that neither the Democrats nor the Republicans seem interested in framing the Iraq situation in this manner. Perhaps Republicans fear this would be tantamount to an admission that that America isn't yet safer from terrorism and preemption has not been effective as a nonproliferation strategy; perhaps Democrats fear that said situation would justify if not require ongoing US troop presence.