U.S. Treasury Secretary John Snow's recent words to the G7 affirm a fundamental shift in globalization.
"We are growing faster than our trading partners and we are creating more disposable income than they are... We need Europe to be more of an engine of growth and we need Japan to be more of an engine of growth."
Europe and Japan, save yourselves.
Economic growth and consumer demand are closely linked. Increased economic activity implies there must be additional consumer demand to handle the increased production of goods and services, lest inventories build. Snow is essentially saying that the USA cannot do it alone with regard to the global economy, that the USA can no longer function as the buyer-of-last-resort to ensure global growth. Given the high rates of consumer debt in the USA and the decline of the U.S. dollar, his stance was perhaps inevitable. From March 2004:
U.S. consumers have taken on record levels of debt as low interest rates have lured them to buy bigger houses and fancier cars and to charge more on credit cards than ever before...
Consumer spending accounts for more than two-thirds of U.S. economic activity.
The impending managed rise in U.S. interest rates will rein in consumer spending and moderate growth. It therefore appears there is little room left for the USA to boost global economic growth significantly, as American consumers are reaching the limits of their spending capacity; furthermore, the U.S. dollar's ongoing decline will tend to reduce the affordability of imports.
