Tuesday, October 19, 2004

Was Haiti the model for democracy in Iraq?

Was Clinton's experience with Haiti the playbook for the current administration's nationbuilding efforts in Iraq? Consider these remarks by Ambassador James F. Dobbins in 1995.

At the height of the U.S. military presence, shortly after the MNF's initial deployment, over 23,000 American military personnel were stationed in Haiti. As of September 1995, there were 2,500 American soldiers, out of a total of 6,000 UN peacekeeping troops, and 800 UN civilian police, drawn from thirty-one countries. In February 1996, the mission of this peacekeeping force will be concluded. The troops will return home, having successfully completed a complex and challenging operation.
Completion of this operation has been keyed to two processes. The first of these has been the disbanding of Haiti's old institutions of repression and the creation of a new professional civilian police force, along with the reform of the judiciary. The second process has been one of democratic renewal and the constitutional transfer of power. This process involves the holding of local, municipal, parliamentary, and finally, presidential elections, so that by the time U.S. and other military forces leave Haiti in February 1996, the entire Haitian government structure, from the lowest to the highest levels, will be renewed, based on a new exercise of democratic choice, within the framework of the Haitian constitution.

The first point of comparison is the disbanding of Iraq's institutions of repression. The Iraqi army and security apparatus were disbanded. The professional civilian police force is being reconstituted. We don't hear much about the Iraqi judiciary, though. Things haven't turned out as scripted, but no need to belabor the point here.

The second point is the emphasis on renewing the government structure, capped off with presidential elections. We are on course for national elections in Iraq next year.

There was also "a massive level of international assistance" to revive Haiti's economy; this corresponds roughly with the administration's reconstruction efforts.

Sunday, October 17, 2004

Staying the course

Tawhid and Jihad has apparently declared its alliegience to al Qaida and Osama bin Laden; the alleged statement also affirmed the common goal of expelling "infidels" from the Arabian peninsula. One analyst was quoted as saying it was a media stunt to frustrate the USA, their common enemy, as well as leveraging the reputation of al Qaida to boost their own.

I'd say there's more to this psyop. Consider the recent tape from al Qaida's number two operative a mere two months ago:

"The defeat of America in Iraq and Afghanistan has become a matter of time, with God’s help," al-Zawahri said on the tape. "The Americans in both countries are between two fires, if they continue they bleed to death and if they withdraw they lose everything."

Given that stated "two fires" objective of al Qaida, it is reasonble to infer that the announcement from Tawhid and Jihad was also intended to force the USA to maintain its force levels in Iraq after the election regardless of who wins, and thus keep pressure off Afghanistan. The statement does not affect Bush's position, but it is a counter to Kerry's attempt to distinguish the conflict in Iraq from the larger War on Terror.

Thursday, October 07, 2004

Trouble in paradise

In 2002, suicide bombers hit a hotel in Kenya. In 2003, terrorists hit a Marriott in Malaysia. Recently, rockets were fired at a Sheraton in Iraq. Now a Hilton was bombed in Egypt.

Hotels likely offer a high concentration of foreigners, and thus are attractive to insurgents in that they're less likely to kill locals. Soft targets it is.

Sunday, October 03, 2004

Fear is the mind killer

Researchers have found in rats that anxiety takes cognition offline; the affected rats reverted to habit under stress. They contrasted cognitive learning with stimulus-response (habit) learning, and found the mechanisms competed.

There are two obvious ways to compensate for the impact of fear. One is to ingrain habits which would be adaptive responses when facing stressful situations. The other is stress management. The latter has the benefit of enabling cognition.